G20 summit: With Trump and Jingping on the cusp of a trade war truce, this is what’s at stake for the global economy – The Independent

What should we expect from the G20 summit meeting that takes place in Osaka, Japan, at the end of this week? No quick end to the rumbling global trade war for a start – but Wall Street is betting on a truce, and that is probably what will happen.

The G20 matters because the countries represented there generate some 80 per cent of the world’s economic activity. Much has been made of the way the global economy has become ever more integrated, but global politics remain set in their national silos.

Well, the G20 is the nearest thing we have to a world government. It is, of course, a long way from that, but at least it gives a framework for discussions between the head of national states about their mutual self-interests. And right now, mutual self-interest requires a reasonable accord on keeping trade lines open.

Obviously, the great up-front issue is between China and the US. There will be an extended meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, and some kind of truce will probably be agreed. But I expect this will be a ceasefire that prevents further escalation, rather than reversion to the relationship that preceded Trump’s presidency. Big US companies are canny. They are already unwinding the complex supply chains that have developed over the past two decades, and seeking to replace (or at least supplement) Chinese suppliers with producers elsewhere in Asia and to some extent Latin America.

1/29 Flippantly dismissing a serious allegation of sexual assault

When author E Jean Carroll accused Trump of raping her, the president responded: “Number one, she’s not my type. Number two, it never happened. It never happened, OK?”

AFP/Getty

2/29 Insulting the Mayor of London as he landed in London

Just before touching down at Stansted Airport for his state visit, Trump took time out to @ the London mayor Saduq Khan on twitter. He said that Khan has done a “terrible job”as mayor and that he is a “stone cold loser”

Reuters

3/29 Taking plenty of “Executive Time”

The President’s official schedule sets aside the hours from 8 to 11am daily for “Executive Time”. Further intermittent periods of “Executive Time” are scheduled throughout any given day, ranging from 15 minutes to 3 hours. His duties in these hours have not been officially disclosed, though Axios reports that he spends them watching TV, reading the newspapers and tweeting

Getty

4/29 Shutdown the government for over a month in an effort to secure funding for his wall

With Mexico declining to pay for the wall, the President has faced difficulty in raising the required $5 billion at home. Due to his demand that the money for the wall be included in the budget, and congress’ refusal, the government partially shut down on 22 December 2018. It remained shut for over a month, the longest period in history

Getty

5/29 Joking about the Nazi occupation of France to President Macron

In this tweet on November 13, the President mocks Emmanuel Macron’s suggestion of a “true, European army” by invoking the conflict between France and Germany in the world wars

6/29 Railing against the Mueller investigation

The President has repeatedly claimed that the Mueller investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election, is a “rigged witch hunt”

Reuters

7/29 Contradicting a US intelligence report on Russian meddling in the presence of Vladimir Putin

In the press conference that followed his landmark meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Mr. Trump stated that he saw no reason why Russia would have meddled in the 2016 US election. This contradicted a 2017 report by the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence that found evidence of Russian interference in favour of Mr. Trump

Getty

8/29 Contradicting his contradiction of a US intelligence report on Russian meddling

Following furious backlash in the US, the President claimed that he meant to say that he saw no reason why it wouldn’t have been Russia who meddled in the 2016 US election. As to why he would have intended to use such bizarre phrasing, he did not comment

Reuters

9/29 Colouring in the US flag wrong

The President coloured in the US flag wrongly during a visit to a children’s hospital in Columbus, Ohio. He added a blue stripe where in tradition, and statute, there have been only white and red stripes

AFP/Getty

10/29 Firing a Secretary of State over Twitter

The President announced on Twitter that he was appointing Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State, much to the surprise of then Secretary of State Rex Tillerson

11/29 Quoting a catchphrase from a reality TV show when discussing police brutality

While addressing the issue of black athletes not standing for the national anthem in protest of police brutality, the President made reference to his catchphrase from reality TV show “The Apprentice”: you’re fired!

Reuters

12/29 Calling African nations “S***hole Countries”

Ever one for diplomacy, the President reportedly referred to African nations as “s***hole countries”. Asked to confirm this when meeting with Nigeria’s President Buhari, Mr. Trump stated that there are “some countries that are in very bad shape.”

Reuters

13/29 Defending Russian President Vladimir Putin

Donald Trump appeared to equate US foreign actions to those of Russian President Vladimir Putin, saying, “There are a lot of killers. You think our country’s so innocent?”

Reuters

14/29 Asking for people to ‘pray’ for Arnold Schwarzenegger

At the National Prayer Breakfast, Donald Trump couldn’t help but to ask for prayers for the ratings on Arnold Schwarzenegger’s show to be good. Schwarzenegger took over as host of “The Apprentice” — which buoyed Mr Trump’s celebrity status years ago

Getty

15/29 Hanging up on Australian PM Malcolm Turnbull

Early in his presidency, Donald Trump reportedly hung up the phone on Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull after the foreign leader angered him over refugee plans. Mr Trump later said that it was the “worst call” he had had so far

Getty

16/29 The ‘Muslim ban’

Perhaps one of his most controversial policies while acting as president, Donald Trump’s travel ban targeting predominantly Muslim countries has bought him a lot of criticism. The bans were immediately protested, and judges initially blocked their implementation. The Supreme Court later sided with the administration’s argument that the ban was developed out of concern for US security

Getty

17/29 Praising crowd size while touring Hurricane Harvey damage

After Hurricane Harvey ravaged southeastern Texas, Donald Trump paid the area a visit. While his response to the disaster in Houston was generally applauded, the President picked up some flack when he gave a speech outside Houston (he reportedly did not visit disaster zones), and praised the size of the crowds there

AP

18/29 Calling North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ‘Little Rocket Man’

During his first-ever speech to the United Nations General Assembly, Donald Trump tried out a new nickname for North Korea leader Kim Jong-un: Rocket Man. He later tweaked it to be “little Rocket Man” as the two feuded, and threatened each other with nuclear war. During that speech, he also threatened to totally annihilate North Korea

19/29 Attacking Sadiq Khan following London Bridge terror attack

After the attack on the London Bridge, Donald Trump lashed out at London Mayor Sadiq Khan, criticizing Mr Khan for saying there was “no reason to be alarmed” after the attack. Mr Trump was taking the comments out of context, as Mr Khan was simply saying that the police had everything under control

Getty

20/29 Claiming presenter Mika Brezinkski was ‘bleeding from the face’

Never one not to mock his enemies, Donald Trump mocked MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” co-host Mika Brzezinski, saying that she and co-host Joe Scarborough had approached him before his inauguration asking to “join” him. He noted that she was “bleeding badly from a face-lift” at the time, and that he said no

MSNBC

21/29 Claiming the blame for Charlottesville was on ‘both sides’

Trump refused to condemn far-right extremists involved in violence at ‘the march for the right’ protests in Charlottesville, even after the murder of counter protester Heather Heyer

AP

22/29 Retweeting cartoon of CNN being hit by a ‘Trump train’

Donald Trump retweeted a cartoon showing a Trump-branded train running over a person whose body and head were replaced by a CNN avatar. He later deleted the retweet

23/29 Tweeting about ‘slamming’ CNN

Donald Trump caught some flack when he tweeted a video showing him wrestling down an individual whose head had been replaced by a CNN avatar. Mr Trump has singled CNN out in particular with his chants of “fake news”

24/29 Firing head of the FBI, James Comey

Donald Trump’s firing of former FBI Director James Comey landed him with a federal investigation into Russia’s meddling in the 2016 election that has caused many a headache for the White House. The White House initially said that the decision was made after consultation from the Justice Department. Then Mr Trump himself said that he had decided to fire him in part because he wanted the Russia investigation Mr Comey was conducting to stop

Getty

25/29 Not realising being president would be ‘hard’

Just three months into his presidency, Donald Trump admitted that being president is harder than he thought it would be. Though Mr Trump insisted on the 2016 campaign trail that doing the job would be easy for him, he admitted in an interview that living in the White House is harder than running a business empire

Reuters

26/29 Accusing Obama of wiretapping him

Donald Trump accused former President Barack Obama of wire tapping him on twitter. The Justice Department later clarified: Mr Obama had not, in fact, done so

Reuters

27/29 Claiming there had been 3 million ‘illegal votes’

Donald Trump was never very happy about losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by 2.8 million ballots. So, he and White House voter-fraud commissioner Kris Kobach have claimed that anywhere between three and five million people voted illegally during the 2016 election. Conveniently, he says that all of those illegal votes went to Ms Clinton. (There is no evidence to support that level of widespread voter fraud.)

28/29 Leaving Jews out of the Holocaust memorial statement

Just days after taking office, Donald Trump’s White House issued a statement on International Holocaust Remembrance Day, but didn’t mention “jews” or even the word “jewish” in the written statement

Getty

29/29 Anger over Inauguration crowd size

Donald Trump’s inauguration crowd was visibly, and noticeably, smaller than that of his predecessor, Barack Obama. But, he really wanted to have had the largest crowd on record. So, he praised it as the biggest crowd ever. Relatedly, Mr Trump also claimed that it stopped raining in Washington at the moment he was inaugurated. It didn’t, the day was very dreary

Reuters

1/29 Flippantly dismissing a serious allegation of sexual assault

When author E Jean Carroll accused Trump of raping her, the president responded: “Number one, she’s not my type. Number two, it never happened. It never happened, OK?”

AFP/Getty

2/29 Insulting the Mayor of London as he landed in London

Just before touching down at Stansted Airport for his state visit, Trump took time out to @ the London mayor Saduq Khan on twitter. He said that Khan has done a “terrible job”as mayor and that he is a “stone cold loser”

Reuters

3/29 Taking plenty of “Executive Time”

The President’s official schedule sets aside the hours from 8 to 11am daily for “Executive Time”. Further intermittent periods of “Executive Time” are scheduled throughout any given day, ranging from 15 minutes to 3 hours. His duties in these hours have not been officially disclosed, though Axios reports that he spends them watching TV, reading the newspapers and tweeting

Getty

4/29 Shutdown the government for over a month in an effort to secure funding for his wall

With Mexico declining to pay for the wall, the President has faced difficulty in raising the required $5 billion at home. Due to his demand that the money for the wall be included in the budget, and congress’ refusal, the government partially shut down on 22 December 2018. It remained shut for over a month, the longest period in history

Getty

5/29 Joking about the Nazi occupation of France to President Macron

In this tweet on November 13, the President mocks Emmanuel Macron’s suggestion of a “true, European army” by invoking the conflict between France and Germany in the world wars

6/29 Railing against the Mueller investigation

The President has repeatedly claimed that the Mueller investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election, is a “rigged witch hunt”

Reuters

7/29 Contradicting a US intelligence report on Russian meddling in the presence of Vladimir Putin

In the press conference that followed his landmark meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Mr. Trump stated that he saw no reason why Russia would have meddled in the 2016 US election. This contradicted a 2017 report by the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence that found evidence of Russian interference in favour of Mr. Trump

Getty

8/29 Contradicting his contradiction of a US intelligence report on Russian meddling

Following furious backlash in the US, the President claimed that he meant to say that he saw no reason why it wouldn’t have been Russia who meddled in the 2016 US election. As to why he would have intended to use such bizarre phrasing, he did not comment

Reuters

9/29 Colouring in the US flag wrong

The President coloured in the US flag wrongly during a visit to a children’s hospital in Columbus, Ohio. He added a blue stripe where in tradition, and statute, there have been only white and red stripes

AFP/Getty

10/29 Firing a Secretary of State over Twitter

The President announced on Twitter that he was appointing Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State, much to the surprise of then Secretary of State Rex Tillerson

11/29 Quoting a catchphrase from a reality TV show when discussing police brutality

While addressing the issue of black athletes not standing for the national anthem in protest of police brutality, the President made reference to his catchphrase from reality TV show “The Apprentice”: you’re fired!

Reuters

12/29 Calling African nations “S***hole Countries”

Ever one for diplomacy, the President reportedly referred to African nations as “s***hole countries”. Asked to confirm this when meeting with Nigeria’s President Buhari, Mr. Trump stated that there are “some countries that are in very bad shape.”

Reuters

13/29 Defending Russian President Vladimir Putin

Donald Trump appeared to equate US foreign actions to those of Russian President Vladimir Putin, saying, “There are a lot of killers. You think our country’s so innocent?”

Reuters

14/29 Asking for people to ‘pray’ for Arnold Schwarzenegger

At the National Prayer Breakfast, Donald Trump couldn’t help but to ask for prayers for the ratings on Arnold Schwarzenegger’s show to be good. Schwarzenegger took over as host of “The Apprentice” — which buoyed Mr Trump’s celebrity status years ago

Getty

15/29 Hanging up on Australian PM Malcolm Turnbull

Early in his presidency, Donald Trump reportedly hung up the phone on Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull after the foreign leader angered him over refugee plans. Mr Trump later said that it was the “worst call” he had had so far

Getty

16/29 The ‘Muslim ban’

Perhaps one of his most controversial policies while acting as president, Donald Trump’s travel ban targeting predominantly Muslim countries has bought him a lot of criticism. The bans were immediately protested, and judges initially blocked their implementation. The Supreme Court later sided with the administration’s argument that the ban was developed out of concern for US security

Getty

17/29 Praising crowd size while touring Hurricane Harvey damage

After Hurricane Harvey ravaged southeastern Texas, Donald Trump paid the area a visit. While his response to the disaster in Houston was generally applauded, the President picked up some flack when he gave a speech outside Houston (he reportedly did not visit disaster zones), and praised the size of the crowds there

AP

18/29 Calling North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ‘Little Rocket Man’

During his first-ever speech to the United Nations General Assembly, Donald Trump tried out a new nickname for North Korea leader Kim Jong-un: Rocket Man. He later tweaked it to be “little Rocket Man” as the two feuded, and threatened each other with nuclear war. During that speech, he also threatened to totally annihilate North Korea

19/29 Attacking Sadiq Khan following London Bridge terror attack

After the attack on the London Bridge, Donald Trump lashed out at London Mayor Sadiq Khan, criticizing Mr Khan for saying there was “no reason to be alarmed” after the attack. Mr Trump was taking the comments out of context, as Mr Khan was simply saying that the police had everything under control

Getty

20/29 Claiming presenter Mika Brezinkski was ‘bleeding from the face’

Never one not to mock his enemies, Donald Trump mocked MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” co-host Mika Brzezinski, saying that she and co-host Joe Scarborough had approached him before his inauguration asking to “join” him. He noted that she was “bleeding badly from a face-lift” at the time, and that he said no

MSNBC

21/29 Claiming the blame for Charlottesville was on ‘both sides’

Trump refused to condemn far-right extremists involved in violence at ‘the march for the right’ protests in Charlottesville, even after the murder of counter protester Heather Heyer

AP

22/29 Retweeting cartoon of CNN being hit by a ‘Trump train’

Donald Trump retweeted a cartoon showing a Trump-branded train running over a person whose body and head were replaced by a CNN avatar. He later deleted the retweet

23/29 Tweeting about ‘slamming’ CNN

Donald Trump caught some flack when he tweeted a video showing him wrestling down an individual whose head had been replaced by a CNN avatar. Mr Trump has singled CNN out in particular with his chants of “fake news”

24/29 Firing head of the FBI, James Comey

Donald Trump’s firing of former FBI Director James Comey landed him with a federal investigation into Russia’s meddling in the 2016 election that has caused many a headache for the White House. The White House initially said that the decision was made after consultation from the Justice Department. Then Mr Trump himself said that he had decided to fire him in part because he wanted the Russia investigation Mr Comey was conducting to stop

Getty

25/29 Not realising being president would be ‘hard’

Just three months into his presidency, Donald Trump admitted that being president is harder than he thought it would be. Though Mr Trump insisted on the 2016 campaign trail that doing the job would be easy for him, he admitted in an interview that living in the White House is harder than running a business empire

Reuters

26/29 Accusing Obama of wiretapping him

Donald Trump accused former President Barack Obama of wire tapping him on twitter. The Justice Department later clarified: Mr Obama had not, in fact, done so

Reuters

27/29 Claiming there had been 3 million ‘illegal votes’

Donald Trump was never very happy about losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by 2.8 million ballots. So, he and White House voter-fraud commissioner Kris Kobach have claimed that anywhere between three and five million people voted illegally during the 2016 election. Conveniently, he says that all of those illegal votes went to Ms Clinton. (There is no evidence to support that level of widespread voter fraud.)

28/29 Leaving Jews out of the Holocaust memorial statement

Just days after taking office, Donald Trump’s White House issued a statement on International Holocaust Remembrance Day, but didn’t mention “jews” or even the word “jewish” in the written statement

Getty

29/29 Anger over Inauguration crowd size

Donald Trump’s inauguration crowd was visibly, and noticeably, smaller than that of his predecessor, Barack Obama. But, he really wanted to have had the largest crowd on record. So, he praised it as the biggest crowd ever. Relatedly, Mr Trump also claimed that it stopped raining in Washington at the moment he was inaugurated. It didn’t, the day was very dreary

Reuters

A truce makes sense for both. Both economies have been damaged. But the tussle for global economic leadership between the US and China will continue for at least a generation, and this summit will be just one more event in shaping the evolving relationship. See this as the start of another cold war, but one where economics and technology are the defining issues, not military might, as was the case with the US and Russia.

For Europeans and Britons, the next question will be in what way the US will challenge European trade policies. The US runs a current account deficit. The EU as a whole has a surplus and a larger one than China – though the UK, like the US, runs a deficit. So, once he feels he has stabilised the China situation, it would be natural for Trump to turn to Europe. It is not on the agenda, but expect to catch some feeling for this in Osaka.

From the narrow perspective of the UK, the danger is that we will be caught in the crossfire between the EU and the US. From the wider perspective of Europe, the danger is that anything that restricts exports will push an already-slowing economy into recession. And from the widest perspective of the global economy, the danger is that the present reasonable freedom of trade worldwide will be weakened still further.

I don’t think we need to panic. We do, however, need to be alert.

The other great issue to look out for will be indications of Indian economic policy now that Narendra Modi has been re-elected so resoundingly. India has been the fastest-growing large economy in the world. I think this is wonderful, but I want to catch a feeling for the next directions of policy. The key issue is how open India will be to inward investment. It needs to be, but economic nationalism is pushing against it.

Finally, any feeling for the way in which the emerging world is coping with environmental challenges would be enormously welcome. The developed world will gradually tackle its pollution, emissions levels, and energy use. You can argue, many people do, that it is doing so too slowly, or has the wrong priorities. But there is movement. What China, India and to some extent Russia, do is in many ways more important. There is movement in China, but it and India are more directly threatened. The cities of the Indian subcontinent have some of the lowest air quality in the world.  

There is a huge amount to be done. The G20 is only a forum for debating how that might be done. But it is better than nothing – the best we have got – and we should respect and listen to what emerges.

Source : Google News

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